“It’s consumption that drives dangerous climate change…”

There’s been a lot of focus on population growth as a key cause of climate change, and it’s been in the news recently, with headlines like “US Population Growth Will Make 2050 Emission Cuts Hard.” It’s an understandable concern, as the debate has been centered around the policy decisions of developed countries — especially the United States — where population growth is a major counterweight to the idea of actual emissions reductions (as opposed to just slower rates of growth).

But as I read the article linked above, I couldn’t help but wonder why they didn’t include one of the many voices that have correctly noted that at root it’s consumption, not population, that’s the defining independent variable for emissions. Especially as David Satterthwaite had so recently written a tightly researched study [PDF] with the primary conclusion that “it is not the growth in (urban or rural) populations that drives the growth in greenhouse gas emissions but rather, the growth in consumers and in their levels of consumption.”

Sure enough, if you read through to the end, thankfully his point of view is included:

Population growth in poor nations has often been exaggerated as a factor in emissions, according to David Satterthwaite, of the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).

The global population is expected to jump to 9 billion by 2050 from about 6.8 billion now, which means there will be a much greater demand for energy, water and food. But a number of countries high population growth, such as in Africa, actually emit an extremely low level of greenhouse gas emissions.

“It’s consumption that drives dangerous climate change, not population,” he said. “There is at most a weak link between population growth and rising emissions of greenhouse gases.”

Exactly. It’s not new information, yet it’s a source of constant amazement that the link between high consuming individuals and climate change — which is transnational by definition — still is just barely a part of the public discourse.

There’s a lot of talk about solutions, which often veers into minutiae and splitting hairs on policy prescriptions. But when such a broad stroke concept is consistently buried, there’s clearly much work to be done to raise awareness.